BRIC

Well maybe I should start off by saying that I'm pretty interested in World Economics and Politics and I'm planning on doing it at 'Higher Level' for the International Baccalaureate diploma next year in the boarding school I'm moving to in India.

So just to say, before you think I'm an obnoxious prick who thinks he knows everything about Economics by the time you've finished reading this post - just remember that I'm just an obnoxious prick. I want to start by taking a brief look at each of what Goldman Sachs deems the BRIC countries which are each huge economies with positive growth forecasts - BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China.

BRAZIL - Brazil just seems like a damn amazing place. Brazilian beaches, Brazilian women and even Brazilian waxing; everything about Brazil just screams sexy. The country is basically unrivalled in South America and it's largest rival in the region (Argentina) has international disputes over what seems to be growing protectionism so I feel that Brazil's economic, political and military power is unrivalled in South America. I think it was this quarter's growth that Brazil hit 9% growth, which is astounding and just shows that since liberalisation of their economy, Brazil is just getting bigger and bigger and more amazing. With no immediate regional security threats, Brazil can focus on international issues to try and raise its political influence across the world. When the Brazilians and Turks signed a "nuclear swap deal" with Iran as mediating countries over the nuclear enrichment issue it just showed that they want to be involved in the global stage of politics. Brazil - it's big and it's looking global.


RUSSIA - If History's taught us one thing, it's that you DON'T fuck with the Russians. Even though the Soviet Union collapsed quite a while ago, Russia's a resurging power and it's re-asserting itself in it's former soviet sphere of influence (namely Eastern Europe and Central Asia). The Russians are entering a customs union which puts it on favourable Economic terms with Kazakhstan and from what I understand they are effectively doing a subtle economic takeover of the country - Belarus as well, but they are being slightly more troublesome from what I hear; nothing the Russians can't handle of course. Russia still holds massive natural gas and oil reserves and for this very reason it can choke Europe's energy supply in a heartbeat if it wanted to. It doesn't matter how many sanctions the USA places on Iran because as long as the Russians support the Iranians they can just buy Iranian oil/gas and ship it to Europe. Vladamir Putin is definitely "restoring Russia to it's former greatness" and even though Russia is currently not too friendly with the USA I believe that as Russia looks for further economic growth and modernisation of it's economy - it will have to take a more pragmatic stance in it's attitude to the West. Also, one of the things to watch out for is a Russian-German convergence of interests as it seems to me that both countries are getting much closer and have built up substantial ties... The world is certainly an interesting place.

INDIA - What can I say? I love this country. I'm currently in the UK but I plan to study in India in a boarding school for the IB - as an Indian I want to live in a fast-paced happening world and I think India's definitely the place to be. My outlook for India is positive in the long term and even though India is behind China in terms of growth rate and GDP - it has a much more balanced economy. Despite the obvious corruption which is rife throughout all parts of the Indian political spectrum and bureaucracy; I think that the people of India will grow despite their government. When Prime Minister Narasimha Rao began major economic reforms in 1991, India was on the verge of bankruptcy and had foreign reserves amounting to $1 billion, now it's over $280 billion in foreign reserves and the Indian economy is booming. Although the slow and cumbersome bureaucracy of India hinders its growth somewhat - it has a stable economy with a large consumer base and sound structure. In my books, India is the country for the long-run. Liberalisation of the economy started around a decade after China and I strongly believe India has just scratched the surface of it's endless potential for development. However, internal civil unrest (such as the jihadist Lashkar-e-Toiba, and the communist Maoists/Naxalites) are dealt with poorly by the central government and both Indian military and foreign policy need some serious work, in my honest opinion, if we hope to stand a chance as a global superpower.

CHINA - China has to be the most successful 'communist' country (if you can call it that) in World History. It's brutal efficiency causes almost unparalleled growth rates of 9 - 11% - only beaten by the growth rates of 13 - 14% from Stalin's five year plans. This country is massive and as it buys more and more American debt while holding the largest foreign reserves on the planet - it becomes increasingly intertwined with the global economy. However, this brutal efficiency comes at a price - a lot of countries sees China's methods at controversial. These controversies range from economic policies (e.g currency reform which Tim Geithner said today may prompt "Congress to do something if China does not move on currency reform") to human rights abuses (Tiananmen square) and poor working conditions for many 'cheap labourers' (just google Foxconn in China...). I also have a feeling that Chinese officials may be in the habit of messing with numbers as officials would be trying to meet targets. This is an amazing economy and alleviating over 600 million people out of poverty is an amazing and admirable feat. However, the social disparity between the rich and the poor is striking, as it is in India (though admittedly, India's social disparity is even more noticeable and even larger) and in this way the Chinese government is obsessed with social stability and you can see the effects of frustration against the state where individuals (not organisations, just different mentally disturbed individuals) vent their frustrations by attacking schoolchildren and going on seemingly random killing sprees. To top off these problems - China has a massive, massive, massive property bubble. This is the kind of property bubble you saw in Japan in the 1990s and Dubai right now BUT MUCH MUCH WORSE. "It's like Dubai but 1000 times worse..." - one investment analyst said, They are simply overvalued and many sophisticated investors suggest a severe economic meltdown in the next year or 2 in China. The massive structural imbalance of the Chinese economy.. actually, cant be bothered going on about this for too long - I'm basically just making my prediction that although China is growing very quickly now, it's unsustainable. And I think that when, NOT IF BUT WHEN, communism finally fails in China - it will see more stable growth and it's people will be able to interact with the global community normally.


Jesus Christ, I feel like a prick for typing all this out - but I wanted to get the ball rolling before I lost interest in blogs :P